The Indian Economy Blog

December 27, 2005

The Indian Growth Conundrum

Filed under: Business — Edward @ 2:03 pm

Question: how fast can the Indian economy grow?

Answer: just as fast as it can get its population (and in particular its female population) educated.

See New Economist and Brad DeLong.

Why the female population? Well, let’s go back to my last post, and to a quote from the linked article about the Lutz-Scherbov projections:

This graph clearly shows that significant further population growth to more than 1.2 billion by 2020 is a near certainty for India. However, after 2025 the uncertainty range opens up noticeably, and by 2050 the 95% range goes from just slightly above 1.1 billion at the low end to 1.7 billion at the high end. Where India falls within this range will be partly influenced by its future investments in human capital formation.

In other words there is no big mystery. Whether or not India really takes off depends critically on how much money India invests in female secondary education NOW. It couldn’t be clearer.

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