Comments on: Demographics And Labour Law Reforms http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/ Issues & insights Tue, 7 Oct 2008 11:37:02 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.1 By: The Indian Economy Blog » An Overheated Debate About India Overheating http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/#comment-96703 The Indian Economy Blog » An Overheated Debate About India Overheating Fri, 02 Feb 2007 04:33:56 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/#comment-96703 [...] In its lead article, the Economist challenges two big notions that have been raised on IEB: one is the idea of the demographic dividend, and the other is the idea that Indian productivity has seen a step-function increase in the early part of this decade. “Many Indian economic commentators say that further structural reforms, though desirable, are not essential to keep the economy growing at 8% or more because of the “demographic dividend”.” Even our own Edward Hugh, perhaps the biggest proponent of India’s demographic dividend that I have come across, probably would not sign on to this. As I have repeatedly stressed here, the Economist is making a political judgment: ‘reforms are essential; and the government (and the, ahem, optimistic economic commentators) don’t realize this.’ “Yes, the economic reforms of the early 1990s spurred competition, forced firms to become more productive and boosted India’s trend—or sustainable—rate of growth. But the problem is that this new speed limit is almost certainly lower than the government’s one. Historic data would suggest a figure not much above 7%—well below China’s 9-10%.” [...] [...] In its lead article, the Economist challenges two big notions that have been raised on IEB: one is the idea of the demographic dividend, and the other is the idea that Indian productivity has seen a step-function increase in the early part of this decade. “Many Indian economic commentators say that further structural reforms, though desirable, are not essential to keep the economy growing at 8% or more because of the “demographic dividend”.” Even our own Edward Hugh, perhaps the biggest proponent of India’s demographic dividend that I have come across, probably would not sign on to this. As I have repeatedly stressed here, the Economist is making a political judgment: ‘reforms are essential; and the government (and the, ahem, optimistic economic commentators) don’t realize this.’ “Yes, the economic reforms of the early 1990s spurred competition, forced firms to become more productive and boosted India’s trend—or sustainable—rate of growth. But the problem is that this new speed limit is almost certainly lower than the government’s one. Historic data would suggest a figure not much above 7%—well below China’s 9-10%.” [...]

]]> By: The Indian Economy Blog » Markets Work…IF You Let Them, That Is… http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/#comment-51986 The Indian Economy Blog » Markets Work…IF You Let Them, That Is… Sun, 03 Dec 2006 08:00:47 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/#comment-51986 [...] Indeed.Would that we saw more of the above, and less of this. For more on labor reforms, read Naveen’s post or Nitin and Ravikiran’s points of view. [...] [...] Indeed.Would that we saw more of the above, and less of this. For more on labor reforms, read Naveen’s post or Nitin and Ravikiran’s points of view. [...]

]]> By: Apun Ka Desh http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/#comment-48935 Apun Ka Desh Sun, 26 Nov 2006 16:15:55 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/#comment-48935 Good one on - Law of UnIntended Consequences. Although - in India's case it is often intended. Crores are being kept unemployed at the cost of Thousands (Trade Unionism, Labour Laws - the writing is on the wall but mishief makers do not want to read). Good one on - Law of UnIntended Consequences. Although - in India’s case it is often intended. Crores are being kept unemployed at the cost of Thousands (Trade Unionism, Labour Laws - the writing is on the wall but mishief makers do not want to read).

]]> By: Aninda http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/#comment-47658 Aninda Wed, 22 Nov 2006 19:02:09 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2006/11/22/demographics-and-labour-law-reforms/#comment-47658 On the topic of the political-economy of India's growth story, the FT article by Jo Johnson and Sonia Gandhi's recent warning about the national 'obsession' with super-power status [hum superpower kabh banenge?] are a timely reminder of the massive potential for: 1)a backlash against the ongoing cyclical growth uptrend, and 2) a nipping in the bud of an incipient structural underpinning of future GDP growth (the demographic basis of higher labor forces, savings/investment, etc). Reform and state sector downsizing have not yet entered the lexicon of popular politics; they are still topics of 'elitist' discussion (including IEB). But that could all change sharply as 60+% of our population stagnates in an economic sector that has shrunk to 20% of GDP (and continues shrinking). Meanwhile, the health stats and demographic imbalances (north vs. south, and i would add - males vs. females) is quite worrying and nothing to gloss over. Aninda On the topic of the political-economy of India’s growth story, the FT article by Jo Johnson and Sonia Gandhi’s recent warning about the national ‘obsession’ with super-power status [hum superpower kabh banenge?] are a timely reminder of the massive potential for: 1)a backlash against the ongoing cyclical growth uptrend, and 2) a nipping in the bud of an incipient structural underpinning of future GDP growth (the demographic basis of higher labor forces, savings/investment, etc).

Reform and state sector downsizing have not yet entered the lexicon of popular politics; they are still topics of ‘elitist’ discussion (including IEB). But that could all change sharply as 60+% of our population stagnates in an economic sector that has shrunk to 20% of GDP (and continues shrinking).

Meanwhile, the health stats and demographic imbalances (north vs. south, and i would add - males vs. females) is quite worrying and nothing to gloss over.

Aninda

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