Comments on: The Future Past http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/ Issues & insights Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:07:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.1 By: Narah http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-169267 Narah Mon, 11 Jun 2007 21:56:56 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-169267 I think that India has better presumption that China to be World Economic Leader. But not now, because China's gdp growth is faster than India's gdp growth: Gdp growth China: http://www.euroekonom.com/database/graphs.php?type=gdp-growth-china&lang=an&time=0 Gdp growth India: http://www.euroekonom.com/database/graphs.php?type=gdp-growth-india&lang=an&time=0 India will be World Leader. Maybe 2040, maybe 2050, maybe later... India has today overmuch things so amateur. For example websites of Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation are HORRIBLE HORROR - non-professional. I think that India has better presumption that China to be World Economic Leader. But not now, because China’s gdp growth is faster than India’s gdp growth:

Gdp growth China:
http://www.euroekonom.com/database/graphs.php?type=gdp-growth-china&lang=an&time=0

Gdp growth India:
http://www.euroekonom.com/database/graphs.php?type=gdp-growth-india&lang=an&time=0

India will be World Leader. Maybe 2040, maybe 2050, maybe later… India has today overmuch things so amateur. For example websites of Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation are HORRIBLE HORROR - non-professional.

]]> By: Balaji Viswanathan http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-165619 Balaji Viswanathan Fri, 01 Jun 2007 23:57:18 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-165619 FYI... as of now Indian per-capita income has already crossed $1000 in exchange-terms and over $3000 in PPP. And given that it is growing at 8% in rupee terms and over 10% in dollar terms, it wouldn't be too surprizing to see a 2020 figure more at around $10000 in PPP that is a pretty good figure. And if we are able to manage our familial and social structures impact, this amount could give sufficient room to keep ourselves happy, economically and socially. But, to get there we need to first abolish illiteracy and second, get the development to rural areas. If these two are done, the markets will take care of the rest. FYI… as of now Indian per-capita income has already crossed $1000 in exchange-terms and over $3000 in PPP. And given that it is growing at 8% in rupee terms and over 10% in dollar terms, it wouldn’t be too surprizing to see a 2020 figure more at around $10000 in PPP that is a pretty good figure. And if we are able to manage our familial and social structures impact, this amount could give sufficient room to keep ourselves happy, economically and socially. But, to get there we need to first abolish illiteracy and second, get the development to rural areas. If these two are done, the markets will take care of the rest.

]]> By: The Indian Economy Blog » Make No Little Plans http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-163498 The Indian Economy Blog » Make No Little Plans Sat, 26 May 2007 07:43:11 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-163498 [...] [This concludes the ten-part series on the topic of building new cities in India. The previous part was The Future Past. ] [...] […] [This concludes the ten-part series on the topic of building new cities in India. The previous part was The Future Past. ] […]

]]> By: j yin http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-163354 j yin Fri, 25 May 2007 18:31:37 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-163354 A problem with using only USD exchange rate for GDP. When the dollar weakens, India's economy magically goes up. A problem with using only USD exchange rate for GDP. When the dollar weakens, India’s economy magically goes up.

]]> By: AS http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162950 AS Thu, 24 May 2007 03:31:19 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162950 Hi Brown Sahib, Just a factual point. Indian economy has just crossed $1 trillion, which means that the per capita nominal GDP is about $1000 not $500,other than that fantastic article Hi Brown Sahib,
Just a factual point. Indian economy has just crossed $1 trillion, which means that the per capita nominal GDP is about $1000 not $500,other than that fantastic article

]]> By: Brown Sahib http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162826 Brown Sahib Wed, 23 May 2007 16:54:30 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162826 Actually, A Simpleton, that first quote isn't from me, but from Full2Njoy -- I don't think we should lag behind the developed world on the environment at all. In fact, the carbon trading under Kyoto is benefitting both us and the Chinese in this regard, as clean plants here are basically receiving financial transfers from polluters in the West in return for carbon credits, providing us with an extra incentive to clean up. As for the second quote, I provided the example of what's recently been going on with Apple and Greenpeace, and I think there are many other examples of corporations and civil society groups actually working out environmental solutions well in advance of any government regulatory inititives (HP, Shell, GE) -- especially in the U.S., where the present administration is not very interested in environmental regulation. So that's a statement based on the historical record of the last few years. The third quote I stand by totally. It is a factual statement of what the future will bring. I didn't say that I think it's good (or bad, for that matter), merely that that is what will happen. For what it's worth, I am not overly concerned about equality as an end in itself (I take inequality, stratification, etc for granted as an inevitable feature of complex modern societies based on the division of labor, although I think institutional mechanisms for mobility, as opposed to redistributive provisions aimed at greater equality, are very important), and I do believe that having 7-8% of the population reach a Western standard of living (as will happen) is better than having only 1% reach that standard, as was the case in the past. That doesn't mean I wouldn't prefer it if everyone in India earned over $40000 a year, I just don't see any logical reason why that should be expected when much of the population can't even read and write, and has no useful skills. Actually, A Simpleton, that first quote isn’t from me, but from Full2Njoy — I don’t think we should lag behind the developed world on the environment at all. In fact, the carbon trading under Kyoto is benefitting both us and the Chinese in this regard, as clean plants here are basically receiving financial transfers from polluters in the West in return for carbon credits, providing us with an extra incentive to clean up.

As for the second quote, I provided the example of what’s recently been going on with Apple and Greenpeace, and I think there are many other examples of corporations and civil society groups actually working out environmental solutions well in advance of any government regulatory inititives (HP, Shell, GE) — especially in the U.S., where the present administration is not very interested in environmental regulation. So that’s a statement based on the historical record of the last few years.

The third quote I stand by totally. It is a factual statement of what the future will bring. I didn’t say that I think it’s good (or bad, for that matter), merely that that is what will happen. For what it’s worth, I am not overly concerned about equality as an end in itself (I take inequality, stratification, etc for granted as an inevitable feature of complex modern societies based on the division of labor, although I think institutional mechanisms for mobility, as opposed to redistributive provisions aimed at greater equality, are very important), and I do believe that having 7-8% of the population reach a Western standard of living (as will happen) is better than having only 1% reach that standard, as was the case in the past. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t prefer it if everyone in India earned over $40000 a year, I just don’t see any logical reason why that should be expected when much of the population can’t even read and write, and has no useful skills.

]]> By: A Simpleton http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162698 A Simpleton Wed, 23 May 2007 08:08:54 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162698 Awww.. If India were all cities, where would I head for a countryside holiday ??? :) Brown Sahib : Amused by : "Environment will be affected for sure. But i believe it can wait. Let the developed countries who are the biggest polluters take some affirmative action. We can follow them later." - A faint hint of the ever alive adoloscent ? :) " I do believe that many environmental problems can be solved even without government action, through the interaction between the market and civil society." - Yeah, right... Why not, if it can rain in deserts... Impressed by : "For these people, India will already be a First World country — with some convenient lifestyle advantages because of cheap unskilled labor. For those without even primary education, on the other hand, I think it will be a very different story. " - Touche ! Now, Now... Am I someone seeing red everywhere? Tell me about it, honorouble soothsayers of the "civil intelligent society" ? Awww.. If India were all cities, where would I head for a countryside holiday ??? :)

Brown Sahib :

Amused by :

“Environment will be affected for sure. But i believe it can wait. Let the developed countries who are the biggest polluters take some affirmative action. We can follow them later.” - A faint hint of the ever alive adoloscent ? :)

” I do believe that many environmental problems can be solved even without government action, through the interaction between the market and civil society.” - Yeah, right… Why not, if it can rain in deserts…

Impressed by :

“For these people, India will already be a First World country — with some convenient lifestyle advantages because of cheap unskilled labor. For those without even primary education, on the other hand, I think it will be a very different story. ” - Touche !

Now, Now… Am I someone seeing red everywhere? Tell me about it, honorouble soothsayers of the “civil intelligent society” ?

]]> By: Baburao Ganpatrao Apte http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162405 Baburao Ganpatrao Apte Tue, 22 May 2007 07:36:48 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162405 Reinstate and make inviolable - Right to hold Property Repeal - - The Urban Land Ceiling & Regulation Act - The Rent Control Act - The Foreign Exchange Management Act - The Monopolies & Restrictive Trade Practices Act - The Industrial Disputes Act - The Employment Contract Regulation Act - The Wealth Tax Act - The Minimum Wages Act - The Employees State Insurance Act - The Employees Provident Fund Act Abolish - - The Planning Commission - Ministry of Human Resources Development - Ministry of Coal - Ministry of Agriculture - Ministry of Agro & Rural Industries - Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers - Ministry of Civil Aviation - Ministry of Culture - Ministry of Food Processing Industries - Ministry of Panchayati Raj - Ministry of Minority Affairs - Ministry of Power - Ministry of Small Scale Industries - Ministry of Steel - Ministry of Textiles - Ministry of Tourism - Ministry of Tribal Affairs - Ministry of Women & Child Development - Ministry of Youth Affairs & Sports - Ministry of Science & Technology - Ministry of Rural Development - Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas - Ministry of New & Renewable Energy - Ministry of Labour & Employment - Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region - Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution - Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs - Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment - Department of Atomic Energy - Department of Space - National Commission for Women - National Commission on Population - Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser - Planning Commission - University Grants Commission - Minorities Commission - Sahitya Akademi - Sangeet Kala Akademi Reinstate and make inviolable -

Right to hold Property

Repeal -

- The Urban Land Ceiling & Regulation Act
- The Rent Control Act
- The Foreign Exchange Management Act
- The Monopolies & Restrictive Trade Practices Act
- The Industrial Disputes Act
- The Employment Contract Regulation Act
- The Wealth Tax Act
- The Minimum Wages Act
- The Employees State Insurance Act
- The Employees Provident Fund Act

Abolish -

- The Planning Commission
- Ministry of Human Resources Development
- Ministry of Coal
- Ministry of Agriculture
- Ministry of Agro & Rural Industries
- Ministry of Chemicals & Fertilizers
- Ministry of Civil Aviation
- Ministry of Culture
- Ministry of Food Processing Industries
- Ministry of Panchayati Raj
- Ministry of Minority Affairs
- Ministry of Power
- Ministry of Small Scale Industries
- Ministry of Steel
- Ministry of Textiles
- Ministry of Tourism
- Ministry of Tribal Affairs
- Ministry of Women & Child Development
- Ministry of Youth Affairs & Sports
- Ministry of Science & Technology
- Ministry of Rural Development
- Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas
- Ministry of New & Renewable Energy
- Ministry of Labour & Employment
- Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region
- Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution
- Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs
- Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment
- Department of Atomic Energy
- Department of Space
- National Commission for Women
- National Commission on Population
- Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser - Planning Commission
- University Grants Commission
- Minorities Commission
- Sahitya Akademi
- Sangeet Kala Akademi

]]> By: anc http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162250 anc Mon, 21 May 2007 20:38:34 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162250 Why don’t they build these big cities somewhere farther to the existing cities, which may lead to balancing development all over India? Or why don’t they invest in other areas like transportation and other sectors or even in agricultural development. They want to make India as realestate hub. They want to cash India’s booming economy man. Nothing else. These few metros becoming greater metros and great greater metros. Rest of the India is as usual. These hells are becoming more and more slums w/o good infrastructure and basic amenities, traffic jams, no water, pollution, no good transportation, crime etc. Why don’t they build these big cities somewhere farther to the existing cities, which may lead to balancing development all over India? Or why don’t they invest in other areas like transportation and other sectors or even in agricultural development. They want to make India as realestate hub. They want to cash India’s booming economy man. Nothing else. These few metros becoming greater metros and great greater metros. Rest of the India is as usual. These hells are becoming more and more slums w/o good infrastructure and basic amenities, traffic jams, no water, pollution, no good transportation, crime etc.

]]> By: Brown Sahib http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162200 Brown Sahib Mon, 21 May 2007 17:03:13 +0000 http://indianeconomy.org/2007/05/19/the-future-past/#comment-162200 Umm, nationwide median incomes of 2000$ in 2020 might be a tad optimistic. Especially considering rates of population growth, and low levels of literacy and education. High median incomes among the college-educated urban middle classes, on the other hand, is a story I'd buy. Median per capita incomes for the college-educated certainly should approach First World levels by PPP by 2020. (Although for this group I wouldn't take a PPP ratio of 6:1, as is currently done; by 2020 it will probably be 2:1, as many of the commodities, services and manufactured products they consume will increasingly be subject to global pricing.) This means a median per capita income of about $30,000 for this group by 2020, up from about $6,000-$12,000 now. People with MBAs and comparable professional qualifications currently start at about $15,000 a year in India, while those with MBAs from top schools start at about $36,000 a year, compared with about 150,000$ a year for top B-school grads in the U.S.; by 2020, Indian MBAs from top schools should start at around $110,000 a year, and their U.S. counterparts will be starting at around $220,000 a year by then. CEOs' and top executives' compensation will also be at about half U.S. levels, in nominal dollar terms. For these people, India will already be a First World country -- with some convenient lifestyle advantages because of cheap unskilled labor. For those without even primary education, on the other hand, I think it will be a very different story. Oh well, que sera, sera. Umm, nationwide median incomes of 2000$ in 2020 might be a tad optimistic. Especially considering rates of population growth, and low levels of literacy and education.

High median incomes among the college-educated urban middle classes, on the other hand, is a story I’d buy. Median per capita incomes for the college-educated certainly should approach First World levels by PPP by 2020. (Although for this group I wouldn’t take a PPP ratio of 6:1, as is currently done; by 2020 it will probably be 2:1, as many of the commodities, services and manufactured products they consume will increasingly be subject to global pricing.) This means a median per capita income of about $30,000 for this group by 2020, up from about $6,000-$12,000 now.

People with MBAs and comparable professional qualifications currently start at about $15,000 a year in India, while those with MBAs from top schools start at about $36,000 a year, compared with about 150,000$ a year for top B-school grads in the U.S.; by 2020, Indian MBAs from top schools should start at around $110,000 a year, and their U.S. counterparts will be starting at around $220,000 a year by then. CEOs’ and top executives’ compensation will also be at about half U.S. levels, in nominal dollar terms.

For these people, India will already be a First World country — with some convenient lifestyle advantages because of cheap unskilled labor. For those without even primary education, on the other hand, I think it will be a very different story. Oh well, que sera, sera.

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