Growth rates in the future are also murky. Times were good for the last several years, coasting on good monsoons, tough decisions made by politicians in the past, and a very favorable global climate. Now, global demand has fallen, US/Europe are set to balance away from consumption for some time, and the government has not only produced no major reforms in the last five years, but seems unlikely to produce major reforms in the next five as well.

So relative to the rest of the world, yes India will probably do better. But it also seems unlikely to match the record of the last few years, unless serious steps are taken to curb the deficit, promote infrastructure and human capital, and usher in serious economic reforms.

I would also be skeptical about giving Roubini ‘cred.’ His predictions were not timely (many years early) and were primarily about the wrong channel (current accounts, collapsing dollar). He was correct not because he has access to some magic ball or technique; he was lucky. He just guessed in one direction, and there is no reason to believe his analysis was any more or less accurate than other predictions in the noisy environment of economic predictions.